Wide receiver advanced stats that matter for fantasy football 2024, and the players who excel at them (2024)

Since their introduction, the prevalence of advanced statistics in fantasy football to the point of ubiquity has served as both a blessing and a curse. Use led directly (and perhaps predictably) to misuse as fantasy managers deployed statistics the way a drunk man uses a lamppost — for support rather than illumination. In this series, we’ll do the exact opposite, turning our spreadsheets inside out to create unique stat combinations. This will help us sort noises from signals and let data-backed discovery identify our top targets. If you missed the quarterback installment of our fantasy football series, you canread it here.

We’re back at it again this week, attacking the WR position through an advanced statistical lens, searching for value. Similar to my work on RBs, in order to meaningfully differentiate players at the very top, we need to separate the top WRs (+100 Targets) by volume before compartmentalizing them into five bins — alpha volume, depth, explosiveness, fantasy-specific efficiency, and touchdown equity.

Note: All ADP courtesy of FantasyPros and player stats/graphs courtesy of Trumedia — Parameters represent average of given samples

Wide Receiver 1-2 by Utilization — 35 Players with +100 Targets in 2023

Alpha Volume: 19 WRs with +540 Routes, +83% Route Participation

1. Garrett Wilson, NYJ — 674 Routes, 97.4% Route%
2. Davante Adams, LV — 579 Routes, 95.9% Route%
3. DJ Moore, CHI — 591 Routes, 95.6% Route%
4. Adam Thielen, CAR — 635 Routes, 93.2% Route%
5. CeeDee Lamb, DAL — 624 Routes, 91.5% Route%
6. DeVonta Smith, PHI — 596 Routes, 91.4% Route%
7. Stefon Diggs, HOU — 593 Routes, 91.1% Route%
8. Calvin Ridley, TEN — 642 Routes, 91.1% Route%
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET — 575 Routes, 90.0% Route%
10. Puka Nacua, LAR — 571 Routes, 89.9% Route%
11. A.J. Brown, PHI — 576 Routes, 88.3% Route%
12. Chris Godwin, TB — 560 Routes, 87.8% Route%
13. Michael Pittman, IND — 564 Routes, 87.7% Route%
14. Tyler Lockett, SEA — 554 Routes, 87.4% Route%
15. Terry McLaurin, WAS — 641 Routes, 87.1% Route%
16. Ja’Marr Chase, CIN — 600 Routes, 86.5% Route%
17. DK Metcalf, SEA — 543 Routes, 85.6% Route%
18. Jordan Addison, MIN — 606 Routes, 85.6% Route%
19. Chris Olave, NO — 542 Routes, 83.0% Route%

Depth: 15 WRs with +23% Target Per Route Run and +10 Air Yards Per Target

1. Tyreek Hill, MIA — 36.6% Tar/Rte, 10.8 AY/Tar
2. Davante Adams, LV — 30.2% Tar/Rte, 10.8 AY/Tar
3. CeeDee Lamb, DAL — 29.0% Tar/Rte, 9.5 AY/Tar
4. Keenan Allen, CHI — 28.6% Tar/Rte, 9.7 AY/Tar
5. A.J. Brown, PHI — 27.4% Tar/Rte, 11.7 AY/Tar
6. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN — 27.1% Tar/Rte, 14.1 AY/Tar
7. Justin Jefferson, MIN — 27.1% Tar/Rte, 12.6 AY/Tar
8. Stefon Diggs, HOU — 27.0% Tar/Rte, 10.4 AY/Tar
9. Jaylen Waddle, MIA — 27.0% Tar/Rte, 10.1 AY/Tar
10. Nico Collins, HOU — 26.1% Tar/Rte, 10.9 AY/Tar
11. Chris Olave, NO — 25.5% Tar/Rte, 13.3 AY/Tar
12. Mike Evans, TB — 25.3% Tar/Rte, 14.0 AY/Tar
13. Garrett Wilson, NYJ — 24.9% Tar/Rte, 10.2 AY/Tar
14. Brandon Aiyuk, SF — 24.0% Tar/Rte, 14.0 AY/Tar
15. Amari Cooper, CLE — 23.7% Tar/Rte, 14.3 AY/Tar

Explosivity: 10 WRs with +8.0 Targets Per Game and +30% Explosive Reception Rate

1. Tyreek Hill, MIA — 10.7 Tar/G, 43.4% ExplRec
2. CeeDee Lamb, DAL — 10.6 Tar/G, 31.1% ExplRec
3. Justin Jefferson, MIN — 10.0 Tar/G, 43.1% ExplRec
4. Puka Nacua, LAR — 9.4 Tar/G, 35.0% ExplRec
5. A.J. Brown, PHI — 9.3 Tar/G, 30.0% ExplRec
6. Amari Cooper, CLE — 8.5 Tar/G, 44.8% ExplRec
7. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN — 8.1 Tar/G, 38.0% ExplRec
8. Mike Evans, TB — 8.0 Tar/G, 41.3% ExplRec
9. DJ Moore, CHI — 8.0 Tar/G, 35.2% ExplRec
10. Calvin Ridley, TEN — 8.0 Tar/G, 33.3% ExplRec

Fantasy-Specific Efficiency: 19 WRs with +1.20 Fantasy Points Per Target

1. Brandon Aiyuk, SF — 1.66 FPS/Tar
2. Nico Collins, HOU — 1.66 FPS/Tar
3. Tyreek Hill, MIA — 1.51 FPS/Tar
4. Mike Evans, TB — 1.50 FPS/Tar
5. CeeDee Lamb, DAL — 1.48 FPS/Tar
6. Jordan Addison, MIN — 1.40 FPS/Tar
7. DJ Moore, CHI — 1.40 FPS/Tar
8. Jakobi Meyers, LV — 1.39 FPS/Tar
9. George Pickens, PIT — 1.38 FPS/Tar
10. Justin Jefferson, MIN — 1.34 FPS/Tar
11. DK Metcalf, SEA — 1.34 FPS/Tar
12. DeVonta Smith, PHI — 1.31 FPS/Tar
13. Rashee Rice, KC — 1.31 FPS/Tar
14. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET — 1.29 FPS/Tar
15. Jaylen Waddle, MIA — 1.22 FPS/Tar
16. Amari Cooper, CLE — 1.21 FPS/Tar
17. Puka Nacua, LAR — 1.21 FPS/Tar
18. Zay Flowers, BAL — 1.20 FPS/Tar

Touchdown Equity: 14 WRs with +83% Goal-To-Go Snap Rate and +0.5 End Zone Targets Per Game

1. A.J. Brown, PHI — 92.1% GTG Snap%, 0.8 EZ Tar/G
2. Garrett Wilson, NYJ — 91.8% GTG Snap%, 0.5 EZ Tar/G
3. DeVonta Smith, PHI — 90.8% GTG Snap%, 0.6 EZ Tar/G
4. Chris Godwin, TB — 90.7% GTG Snap%, 0.6 EZ Tar/G
5. Ja’Marr Chase, CIN — 90.0% GTG Snap%, 0.6 EZ Tar/G
6. Davante Adams, LV — 89.3% GTG Snap%, 0.5 EZ Tar/G
7. Justin Jefferson, MIN — 88.6% GTG Snap%, 1.0 EZ Tar/G
8. Puka Nacua, LAR — 88.4% GTG Snap%, 0.6 EZ Tar/G
9. Stefon Diggs, HOU — 87.0% GTG Snap%, 0.6 EZ Tar/G
10. Calvin Ridley, TEN — 86.0% GTG Snap%, 1.4 EZ Tar/G
11. Mike Evans, TB — 83.3% GTG Snap%, 1.2 EZ Tar/G
12. DJ Moore, CHI — 83.3% GTG Snap%, 0.8 EZ Tar/G
13. DK Metcalf, SEA — 80.3% GTG Snap%, 1.2 EZ Tar/G
14. CeeDee Lamb, DAL — 78.5% GTG Snap%, 1.4 EZ Tar/G

There’s so much to unpack from this data set in regard to wideouts that I could take it right up to kick off. Since I have neither the time nor the digital real estate for a fantasy-related dissertation, let’s keep it actionable. It may not be the wheel reinvented, but after well over 100 hand-builds from every draft slot, I feel strongly in my assertion. You must draft at least two WRs in the first four rounds or be left in the disadvantaged position of playing catch up for the entire season. Sure, 35 players eclipsed 100 targets in 2023, but very few stood out from the pack — and the relationship is not as direct as one might assume. After curating the lists for repeat appearances, I believe far fewer WRs can win your league than meets the eye.

Among the 35 top players, just 20 WRs excelled in multiple categories (or less than two per team in standard formats).

• Only one WR showed up on all five lists — CeeDee Lamb (ADP 2)
• Five more WRs showed up on four lists — Justin Jefferson (ADP 4), A.J. Brown (ADP 9), Puka Nacua (ADP 13), Mike Evans (ADP 34), DJ Moore (ADP 40)
• Eight more WRs showed up on three lists — Tyreek Hill (ADP 3), Garrett Wilson (ADP 14), Davante Adams (ADP 18), Stefon Diggs (ADP 36), DK Metcalf (ADP 42), DeVonta Smith (ADP 45), Amari Cooper (ADP 55), Calvin Ridley (ADP 76)
• Six more WRs showed up on two lists — Ja’Marr Chase (ADP 7), Nico Collins (ADP 28), Jaylen Waddle (ADP 35), Chris Godwin (ADP 71), Jordan Addison (ADP 93), DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 95)

At this point, I can basically guarantee I’m drafting a wideout in the first round (and likely again in the second). As a volume player, it’s important to diversify first round selections and avoid one injury tanking too many teams. That said, I know I’m supposed to take a stand here. When it comes to the biggest drafts, I don’t mean to cop out, but you can’t go wrong with any of the top 10 WRs by rank. And given the heavy concentration of these picks in the first three rounds, I don’t see how you can willingly forego the top pass catching talents, especially in 3-WR and/or PPR formats. Unlike the running back position, which provides value via depth (read my RB installment here), the wide receiver replacement gap widens immediately. Grab these guys early and often, while you can, without taking your eye off the small handful potentially available after Round 5. Following that logic train to its conclusion brings me right to Chris Godwin almost every time as the final oasis (Jordan Addison has disciplinary concerns and DeAndre Hopkins is injured).

Wide Receiver 3-4 By Utilization — 45 WR Between 50-99 Targets

Relative Usage — 15 WRs Above +17% Target Per Route Run and +10 Air Yards Per Target

Explosivity: 25 WRs with +5.0 Targets Per Game and +30% Explosive Reception Rate

Fantasy-Specific Efficiency: 19 WRs +1.10 Fantasy Points Per Target

At the back end, it’s second verse, same as the first. Any player popping up in multiple spots represents fantasy breakout potential. Some WRs like Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp missed the target requirement for WR1 consideration, so don’t expect a discount. By the numbers, our late standouts are Tank Dell (ADP 65), Jayden Reed (ADP 76), Christian Watson (ADP 98), Courtland Sutton (ADP 118), and my personal favorite Rashid Shaheed (ADP 42). Now, which of these players you draft, and where, depends on your build to that point. Since I stress elite wideouts, I’m usually shopping in other aisles when the Dell, Reed and/or Watson being drafted. However, if you built RB-heavy to start, those are precisely the players I’d target.

Thanks so much for reading. Comments and feedback are more than welcome, so please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my best-sellingNFL+MLBSubstack page for rankings, weekly projections and all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.

(Top photo of Chris Godwin: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY)

John is a lifetime fan and longtime analyst who crossed into content creation with his integration of technical analysis in the MLB space. He’s the man behind the @MLBMovingAvg handle on Twitter, launching the MLBMA algorithm in 2018 after having written several successful models, focused on creating the preeminent handicapping tool for fantasy baseball and sports betting. He's also the Director of MLB content at windailysports.com and will not rest until the Quality Start is fixed. Follow John on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg